Major League Baseball has two major problems. The first is the draft and the second is the Qualifying Offer system. We can tackle how to fix the draft on a different day, today we focus on the flawed system of record setting numbers of Qualifying Offers season after season.
The idea of a Qualifying Offer is a good idea in theory. It just sucks in the execution of the current rule. This year a QO was like $15.8 million or something like that for a single season. The team handing out this cash gets the player for a year or a draft pick from a team outside of the top 10 if the player leaves.
Sounds good on paper right? Sure!
BUT! it is stupid in real life. $15.8 million sounds like a ton of money but the guys getting these offers could be getting $200 million on the open market so turing down the one year $15.8 mil is pretty easy.
The draft pick that a team has to give up gives some teams pause when thinking about adding another ten or fifteen million on a deal but other than a few guys Santana, Morales, and Drew it really hasn’t hurt too many guys.
The question is with the number of QO setting records each year there must be a flaw in the system. Teams are throwing QO on guys just to get picks. Looking at you Baltimore. Under the current system you can’t blame them for doing it. If a guy is a $11-15mil a year guy why not throw the offer on him and get a pick. If the guy stays a year great you might over pay by a million or two but when he leaves for a two year deal at $34 mil you get a first round pick to control for years to come. You also hurt the guys open market value if he is a mid to bottom tier QO player. The big money guys it does’t matter a lick. No one cares if they lose some high school kid if you are paying David Price $220 million. It is when you are paying a 32 year old pitcher $55 mil that start thinking maybe we keep the pick and go after a different guy.
This is where my plan comes into play. First the system needs to have tiers. What do you mean? I mean that there needs to be a sliding scale of offers that gets you more picks but also forces you to offer a more realistic contract. So, for this example lets take a look Grienke. I would say Price but he was traded so you can’t get anything under the current system and I think that is rule should stay in some form or fashion.
So, Grienke is going to get $150-$200 million on his next deal so a one year $15.8 deal is a joke to him. The guy gave up $72 million to get a bigger deal. Now for the new sliding scale. The first level would be the current $15.8 mil but that would only get you a pick at the back of the second round. The next level would be a two year deal at $35 million this would make a team give up their second round pick in the draft. The next level would be a three year deal at $55 million. This would allow the team losing the player to get the signing teams first round pick like the current model. The next level would be a four year deal at $70 million. This level would have the signing team give up the first round pick plus losing team would get a sandwich pick between rounds two and three. The final level would be a six year deal at $120 million. The signing team would give up its draft pick in the spot it is picking in the draft unless it is in the top 10. Top 10 tens would keep their pick but be forced to give up a second round pick any competitive balance pick and the largest international signing bonus the teams holds.
This system would not only makes teams think about handing out QO it would also make players take a serious look at turing down the offer. The current model basically is here is the offer turn it down now lets do the real contract talk which helps no one.
If someone like Alex Gordon who the Royals don’t want to lose was slapped with a six year QO it would almost be a lock that Gordon would take it and that no team would match it. The same can be said for many of the mid tier pitchers. A model where players have to really give up something is the only way to make this system truly benefit anyone.
This model would also increase the amount of trades because a team could offer a four or six year offer with the idea that they would trade the player to another team much like a sign and trade in the NBA or a franchise tag in the NFL. I also think some kind of cash for picks clause could be added to the this system. Under this rule a team could buy the pick back for a very large amount.
For example if the Yankees sign Grienke away from the Dodgers after the Dodgers offered a six year QO. The Yankees could call the Dodgers and ask them if they would like $20 million bucks or the picks and bonus money. I’m not sure how well this system would work but I think if a big money team could basically buy back a pick some way that it could help inject funds into smaller market teams that might prefer an extra $20 million this year vs a pick for a kid five years away. I have no clue what a pick is worth in baseball but whatever that number is the price needs to be x3 x4 times that amount.
